every loser have this

In the early hours of yesterday morning, I picked up the phone and heard a woman sobbing loudly.I did not recognize the phone number or the voice, so I knew it was not a relative or friend.Still half-awake, I asked her how I could help her.It was yet another tale of sorrow, struggle and the inability to make ends meet. She was a single woman who lost her job and turned to scalping in the DJIA mini-futures to make enough money to save her house and pay her bills.She had been trying for four years to trade and was losing steadily. Her equity was going down every day and she was desperate to understand why.

"Why?How can this happen to me?I am smart, educated, good with numbers and even trained myself to be a professional blackjack player. I trade one contract and every time I lose money, I go into a total tailspin.I get so emotional that I can't recover.I thinkI need some kind of medication to get me through thisbecause I am at the end of my rope.

I backtest my system every time I change it and I change it often.When I trade on paper, I make good money, but as soon as I go into the markets, I lose. If I had my job back or any other job, I would leave trading in a heartbeat.I don't know what to do. Please help me?"
In less than ten minutes, I heard almost every mistake a trader can make.Almost.

Symptoms:

Trading with "scared" money Trading from a state of desperation and fear Ruled by emotions and unable to take a loss Changing her trading plan often Trying to be perfect Looking for medication to deal with emotional issues over trading Adopting a trading technique (scalping one futures contract) that is beyond her level of trading competence Attached to the outcome of each trade Not committed to the process of learning to trade-using trading as a temporary "stop-gap" source of income until something else becomes available. Acting out personal dramas in the financial markets

Diagnosis:

Financial Anxiety Disorder ( FAD) with depressive components, leading to maladaptive trading behavior.

Possible gambling addiction. (Not enough information to confirm or deny)

Treatment:

Stop trading and look elsewhere for a source of income.

Find a competent, compassionate, communicative and transparent financial advisor to help with this aspect of her life.

Increase social or family support to mitigate isolation.
Begin a regular program of yoga to reduce anxiety.

Thanks and Good Trading!

Janice

Janice Dorn, M.D, Ph.D.

Jesse Livermore's How to Trade in Stocks

Jesse Livermore wrote one book: How to Trade in Stocks: The Livermore Formula for Combining Time, Element and Price. It was published in 1940. The book is very rare and not easily found.
Some excerpts from the original version are below:

Trust Yourself

When you are handling surplus income to do not delegate the task to anyone. Whether you are dealing in millions or in thousands the same principal lesson applies. It is your money. It will remain with you just so long as you guard it. Faulty speculation is one of the most certain ways of losing it. Blunders by incompetent speculators cover a wide scale.

Losers Average Losers

I have warned against averaging losses. That is a most common practice. Great numbers of people will buy a stock, let us say at 50, and two or three days later if they can buy it at 47 they are seized with the urge to average down by buying another hundred shares, making a price of 48.5 on all. Having bought at 50 and being concerned over a three-point loss on a hundred shares, what rhyme or reason is there in adding another hundred shares and having the double worry when the price hits 44? At that point there would be a $600 loss on the first hundred shares and a $300 loss on the second shares. If one is to apply such an unsound principle, he should keep on averaging by buying two hundred shares at 44, then four hundred at 41, eight hundred at 38, sixteen hundred at 35, thirty-two hundred at 32, sixty-four hundred at 29 and so on. How many speculators could stand such pressure? So, at the risk of repetition and preaching, let me urge you to avoid averaging down.

Margin

I know but one sure tip from a broker. It is your margin call. When it reaches you, close your account. You are on the wrong side of the market. Why send good money after bad? Keep that good money for another day. Risk it on something more attractive than an obviously losing deal.

Price Movement

We know that prices move up and down. They always have and they always will. My theory is that behind these major movements is an irresistible force. That is all one needs to know. It is not well to be too curious about all the reasons behind price movements. You risk the danger of clouding your mind with non-essentials. Just recognize that the movement is there and take advantage of it by steering your speculative ship along with the tide. Do not argue with the condition, and most of all, do not try to combat it.

lessons from livermore

• Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.
• I told you I had ten thousand dollars when I was twenty, and my margin on that Sugar deal was over ten thousand. But I didn't always win. My plan of trading was sound enough and won oftener than it lost. If I had stuck to it I'd have been right perhaps as often as seven out of ten times. In fact, I have always made money when I was sure I was right before I began. What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game- that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. There is a time for all things, but I didn't know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily- or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.
• It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.
• There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!
• I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, Well, you know this is a bull market! he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements- that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
• The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.
• ?the average man doesn't wish to be told that it is a bull or bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn't even wish to have to think. It is too much bother to have to count the money that he picks up from the ground.
• To tell you about the first of my million dollar mistakes I shall have to go back to this time when I first became a millionaire, right after the big break of October, 1907. As far as my trading went, having a million merely meant more reserves. Money does not give a trader more comfort, because, rich or poor, he can make mistakes and it is never comfortable to be wrong. And when a millionaire is right his money is merely one of his several servants. Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong- not taking the loss- that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.
• What I have told you gives you the essence of my trading system as based on studying the tape. I merely learn the way prices are most probably going to move. I check up my own trading by additional tests, to determine the psychological moment. I do that by watching the way the price acts after I begin.
• Of all speculative blunders there are few worse than trying to average a losing game. My cotton deal proved it to the hilt a little later. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit. That was so obviously the wise thing to do and was so well known to me that even now I marvel at myself for doing the reverse.
• The loss of the money didn't bother me. Whenever I have lost money in the stock market I have always considered that I have learned something; that if I have lost money I have gained experience, so that the money really went for a tuition fee. A man has to have experience and he has to pay for it.
• In booms, which is when the public is in the market in the greatest numbers, there is never any need of subtlety, so there is no sense of wasting time discussing either manipulation or speculation during such times; it would be like trying to find the difference in raindrops that are falling synchronously on the same roof across the street. The sucker has always tried to get something for nothing, and the appeal in all booms is always frankly to the gambling instinct aroused by cupidity and spurred by a pervasive prosperity. People who look for easy money invariably pay for the privelege of proving conclusively that it cannot be found on this sordid earth. At first, when I listened to the accounts of old-time deals and devices I used to think that people were more gullible in the 1860's and 70's than in the 1900's. But I was sure to read in the newspapers that very day or the next something about the latest Ponzi or the bust-up of some bucketing broker and about the millions of sucker money gone to join the silent majority of vanished savings.
• There are men whose gait is far quicker than the mob's. They are bound to lead- no matter how much the mob changes.

conversation between Asit and Santa

A man was brought in to the hospital intensive care ward, put in a bed, tubes coming out everywhere. A week later, another man was admitted, in a similar condition.

Both lay there, machines pinging, tubes poking etc. a couple more weeks before one of them had the strength to raise his hand and point to himself and say, "Bengali."

The other patient signaled he had heard, raised his own hand, and said, "Punjabi."
This act tired them out so badly it was a week before the first summoned up the strength to say, "Calcutta."
Other replied in a weedy frail voice, "Ludhiana."

Once more, the strain was too much for them both and they passed out. Days passed before the first patient managed to again point to himself and say, "Asit."
Replied the other, "Santa."

A few hours later, Asit managed to point to himself again and rasp out weakly, "Cancer."
Santa responded, "Sagittarius."

No short-term trading system is perfect. However, having and using a system is critical for short-term trading success, say Howard Abell and Bob Koppel.



“A successful short-term trading system must be profitable, consistent, and personal--conforming to the unique psychological and methodological needs of the individual,” they said.Abell is chief operating officer for Innergame Division and author of “The Day Trader’s Advantage” and “The Insider’s Edge.”



Koppel has authored “The Intuitive Trader” and is president of Innergame Division, which is a professional and institutional brokerage and trader execution services division of Rand Financial--a Chicago-based futures commission merchant with clearing representation worldwide.Innergame Division is also associated with the MooreResearchCenter, based in Eugene, Ore. Steve Moore is the proprietor.



Together, they have created the Innergame Partners/Moore Research, Inc. (IPMR) Trading Approach.



The trading method has the following tenets:



Patience Is Your EdgeThe edge of the floor trader is buying the bid and selling the offer. This is an unreasonable expectation for off-the-floor day- and swing-traders. However, there are other ways to maintain an edge. Patience and preparation serve to create an edge that helps build and conserve equity. Knowing what you expect the market to do and waiting patiently for the market to come to you-in other words, to meet your expectations--gives you that edge.



Good Daytraders and Swing Trades Result from High Percentage of “Set-ups”



Each day must be viewed in a larger context, which might be one day to two weeks of market action. Understanding how markets “set up” to make predictable moves and anticipating these moves through the set-up is a valuable key to success.



Anticipating Market Opportunities In most instances, waiting for the market to demonstrate what appears to be a trading opportunity will result in entering too late for maximum profits.



Predetermined Buy and Sell Areas Must Be ExecutedFor those traders who have difficulty “pulling the trigger,” putting resting orders in the market will get you into or out of the trade.



Trade One Set-Up per Market Day Overtrading comes from indecision and anxiety. By setting your sights on one good set-up in a market, you avoid trading your emotions.



Ignore the Noise, Follow the Signal Much of what a market does during the day can be considered noise--that is, market action without meaning. Hanging on every tick can be a wearisome and misleading chore. You must eliminate your reactions to the noise and follow the essential signals.



Take “Fast-Market” or Climax Condition Profits In day- or swing-trading it is a good idea to exit a profitable trade if the market climaxes on heavy tick volume or “fast-market” conditions. It is a high probability that the high or low of the day is being made at this time. If the market hits your resting entry orders under these conditions, expect immediate profits or be alert for another wave in the same direction.



Abandon Dull or Non-Performing Markets If you find yourself in a market that is very dull--look elsewhere. Time is scarce and watching a dull market drains energy.Koppel and Abell made their presentation to traders attending the Technical Analysis Group (TAG XVIII) meeting in New Orleans late last week. The meeting was sponsored by Dow Jones Telerate

talk the walk or walk the talk

Seasons come and go, markets change and evolve, but human behavior hardwired into the brain has not really changed much since the time of the Neanderthal.




Every one of you reading this wants to make money in the markets. The principles, while simple, are not easy. Take personal responsibility for your trades, execute ruthlessly, cut losses quickly, stay healthy in body, mind and spirit, practice good risk management, plan your trade and trade your plan, master your emotions, practice patience, do more of what is working, and take profits on a regular basis. This sounds easy, but the majority of you struggle daily to do these things. You search continually for something---an indicator, a method, a newsletter, a guru. You are looking for answers in all the wrong places.



A hero is an ordinary individual who finds the strength and courage to persevere and endure in spite of overwhelming obstacles...Christopher Reeve



There is one immutable fact that underlies all successful trading: The answer is within you. It is not out there somewhere. It is about your brain (your true trading system) and HOW, not WHAT you think. Traders, with few exceptions, are made not born. Anyone, given the passion, determination and willingness to work hard, lose, fall down and keep getting up, can learn to trade successfully. I have three doctorate degrees: an M.D in Psychiatry, a Ph.D. in Brain Anatomy and a Ph.D. in futures market losses. I had to get the last one in order to get a true grip on who I really was as a person in the realms of risk and money. Long story--three excruciatingly painful years-- but if I can do it, you can do it.



How? You must believe totally that you are called to trading, that it is the one thing about which you are completely passionate and that you are willing to forego everything else in order to succeed. Moreover, you must learn to think in probabilities and entrain the qualities of being counterintuitive and peripatetic. You must become a chameleon, a great actor and acrobat on the largest and most intimidating stage in the world. Most of all, you must be absolutely determined and passionate about it. If you can take these steps—slowly and one at a time-- you have a chance to make it.



2010 is upon us. Is this the year you will find the courage to follow your passion and do what it takes to become a successful trader? If so, then see yourself as the most brilliant firework lighting up the sky. Settle for nothing less than your personal best. Let 2010 be YOUR year to shine like the brightest star in the universe. Is this your time? If now not, then when?



Courage is more exhilarating than fear, and in the long run it is easier. We do not have to become heroes overnight...just one step at a time, meeting each new thing that comes up, seeing it not as dreadful as it appeared and discovering we have the strength to stare it down...Eleanor Roosevelt

what are the qualities that most top traders/investors have

Quite often I get asked the question, “what are the qualities that most top traders/investors have?” Furthermore, I’m also asked, “Can those traits be developed?” While there are many, many traits that I’ve noticed in top traders, I though I’d pick four of them in this tip and talk about each of them briefly.” In other future tips, I’ll be talking about some of them in much more detail.



Trait 1: Personal Responsibility.



I think the most important trait that all top traders have (or top people in any field) is the ability to assume total responsibility for what happens to them. And for top traders and investors, this means that they assume total responsibility for their investments results.



This means that if you lose money it’s not the market’s fault, it’s not your advisor’s fault, it’s not your system’s fault, or the fault of anything else. Instead, it is a direct result of what you did. When you assume this attitude, you can learn directly from your mistakes and trading becomes a big university setting which constantly allows you to improve. When you don’t assume this attitude, then you get to repeat your mistakes over and over again because you believe that you were a victim of some external forces. Which would you rather have – the ability to learn from your mistakes or the tendency to repeat them over and over again?



Trait 2: Commitment.



Becoming a successful investor/trader requires hard work. You must get to know yourself intimately because you are the source of your trading performance. You must develop a business plan to guide your trading. You must develop and test three or four strategies that fit within the big picture (as you see it) and then become part of your business plan. You must do your homework every evening. You must follow certain disciplines during the day that we call the ten tasks of trading. And all of this requires a lot of time and energy. And in my experience, it is only the people who are really committed who will put in the work necessary to become successful.



Trait 3: Mental State Control.



I’m both a coach for traders and a modeler of top trading behavior. As a coach I help top traders follow the fundamentals (some of which I’m outlining here). And as a modeler, I determine what top traders do in common and those qualities actually become the fundamentals that I teach. For example, there are ten tasks of trading that I expect each of my clients to follow every day. But the key to following those tasks is mental state control. Each task requires a particular mental state in order to execute it properly and you must have the skill to step into that state and perform the task.



For example, one of the ten tasks of trading is the action step of pulling the trigger. The mental state required is 100% commitment to action. There is no thinking involved, just 100% action. You should already know what to do when you get this signal because you’ve already developed a system that works. Thus, your job is simply to act. Think about when the tiger starts to leap on the antelope. He doesn’t suddenly think to himself, “Is this a good idea?” If he did that, he’d probably miss the antelope and break his back. No, his mental state is 100% commitment. Well, each essential task of trading requires a particular mental state and you must have the ability to step into that state.



Trait 4: Top-Down Discipline.



I’m in the process of developing a new workshop entitled “17 Steps to Becoming a Great Trader.” One of those steps involves developing top-down discipline. In developing this sort of discipline, you must go through the following steps:



Write out your dream life. What would you like to be, do, see, experience, and have in your lifetime in order for it to be ideal? Write this out completely.



Write down the purpose behind that dream life. Write down your mission, your purpose and all of the whys behind that dream life. This step helps you get excited about achieving it.



Write down your goals for the next year.



Write down the purpose for each goal.



Write down a series of action steps for each goal.



And each action step (if it takes longer that a week for you to finish) could be considered another goal with a purpose behind it and a series of action steps behind that.



The net result of following these steps is that you develop a top-down discipline that helps you develop commitment and achieve almost anything you set your mind to achieving. Now let’s look at what we have in these four qualities.



First you have a top down discipline that really helps you achieve almost anything you set your mind to achieving. Next you have the ability to get yourself into the appropriate mental state to do whatever you need to do with excellence. Third, you have the commitment to see your goals through to the finish. And lastly, but remember that I mentioned it first; you believe that you are personally responsible for what happens to you – which means that you can learn from your mistakes.



Now, don’t you agree that with these four qualities, you could achieve peak performance as a trader or almost anything else you set your mind to doing

Steve Reitmeister

Let's flash back 31 years ago to a brokerage office in Merrillville, Indiana.




There you will find a young Steve Reitmeister doing a summer job for his father. Sure I was trying to earn extra spending money. But, more importantly, I was a budding young capitalist eager to learn about investing in stocks. So who better to learn from than my father, a seasoned Certified Financial Planner.



So dad pulls out the, seemingly 50 pound, hard copy Value Line Investment Survey binder. He reviews the basics with me. Such as understanding that owning stocks is about taking an ownership stake in the company. And the healthier the company and the more earnings it generates, the higher the stock price will go. He then leaves me for a while to do some research on my own.



I was immediately drawn to the valuation section for each stock. In my mind it made no sense to buy a stock that they only expected to go up 30-50% when some had the potential to go up 100%, 200%, even 300%.



My dad tried to explain to me that they are discounted for a reason. Most of them were troubled companies producing poor earnings reports and suffering from declining stock prices. This made them risky investments and perhaps should be avoided.



No matter how hard he tried, I could not be swayed. I wanted the chance at the higher potential return. Right then and there, it was clear I was a turnaround investor.



The story since then is one of some glorious successes (buying Amazon at $8.50 and Priceline at $25 after the Internet bubble burst). But also a story of some shocking failures (watching shares of @Home and CMGI go from bad to non-existent).



So the purpose of this article is to share some lessons learned over these 31 years with other investors who enjoy the thrill of profiting from a great turnaround story.



Lesson 1: Why Pursue Turnaround Stocks?



There are many ways to invest successfully. Yet the appeal of the turnaround is broad based. That's because no one will pat you on the back for buying an obviously good stock like Apple at $250 and selling it for $300.



The joy of the turnaround story is that it's often a discarded or unknown stock that no one else wants to touch. And when it goes up, you get great satisfaction in the "I told you so" moment when you share the story with others. (Many of whom didn't take your advice in the first place. Shame on them ;-)



But more importantly, there is great satisfaction in the outsized returns that occur when you guess right on a previously neglected stock. And that is the best reason of all to actively seek out these turnaround candidates.



Lesson 2: Wait for the Proof



The one thing that all my turnaround failures have in common is that I got in too early. Meaning I was buying in on the way down, hoping and praying that the turnaround would take place. Too often the turnaround did not materialize and my hard earned money was washed down the drain.



So the key is to have the patience for the company to show you undeniable proof that the turnaround is occurring. The clearest form of proof is when the company delivers a big positive earnings surprise that Wall Street analysts fawn over with greatly increased earnings estimates for the future.



Yes it's true that the stock will jump on that news and you will not grab the stock "exactly" at the bottom. However, your entry point will be plenty low in the grand scheme of things. Plus you have now GREATLY increased your odds of being in a winning and timely trade.



Lesson 3: Choose Growth Stocks



You are bound to discover that a turnaround story can take place in any industry with companies both big and small. However, the best returns will come from buying the stocks that have the highest growth rates. That is because once the turnaround takes place the PE will start to rise from abnormally low levels. The higher the growth rate of the firm, the more the multiple will expand and the greater your final return.



My two previous success stories of Amazon and Priceline prove out my point. These stocks are up 2000% and 1500%, respectively, since I bought them nine years ago. That's because they are still experiencing the phenomenal growth associated with being Internet e-commerce leaders. However, we all know I would not have fared as well if I invested in more pedestrian stocks like a phone company or bug exterminator.



Long story short...focus on growth stocks for the best turnaround profits.



Lesson 4: Don't Forget Value



Not every stock whose price has gone down is a bargain. That is because stocks have so much premium in their share price that it takes a long time to squeeze out the excess after the bad news hits. For other companies it's not really a bargain because future estimates keep slipping faster than the share price decline; thus making the PE actually rise.



Given the increased risk inherent in turnaround plays means that you should be buying at a discount to peers to make it worth your while. PE, PEG and Book Value are all useful tools. But certainly consider the lesser used Price to Sales ratio, which quite often unveils the best opportunities.



Where to Find Turnaround Stocks Now?



Given my love of turnaround stocks I commissioned our research team to develop a strategy to help investors discover more of these profitable trades. To say that we were successful in this endeavor would be the understatement of the decade.



The starting point for this project was noting that true turnarounds can easily be detected when a company's earnings estimates suddenly reverse from downward to upward. So the proof of the turnaround occurs when a stock makes a sudden leapfrog from a lowly Zacks #5 Rank ('Strong Sell') or Zacks #4 Rank ('Sell') all the way to a Zacks #1 Rank ('Strong Buy').



On top of that we add in key measures of earnings growth and reasonable valuation to create a turnaround stock picking strategy that beats the average Zacks #1 Rank stock by 2.5 times. Yes, that means the average gain was +45.4% per year. (And that gain was over the past 10 years. As you probably remember, that 10 year stretch wasn't the best for stock investors and yet this turnaround strategy just kept picking winner after winner).



So I highly recommend that you check out our new Zacks Rank Turnaround Trader now, because we must limit the number of investors who share its recommendations. There has already been a flood of investors joining at special Charter Member terms. This arrangement ends Monday December 20, but the service may close to new investors at any time.

jokes

Are all Indians vegetarian?
Yes. Even tigers are vegetarian in India.

Does India have cars?
No. We ride elephants to work. The government is trying to encourage ride-sharing schemes.

What does that red dot on women's forehead mean?
Well, in ancient times, Indian men used to practice archery skills by target practicing by aiming at their wife's red dot. In fact, that is one of the reasons why they had many wives. You see, once they mastered the art of archery and hit the target....

Does India have TV?
No. We only have cable.

Are you a Hindi?
Yes. I am spoken everyday in Northern India.

Do you speak Hindu?
Yes, I also speak Jewish, Islam and Christianity.

Is it true that everyone there is very corrupt?
Yes, in fact, I had to bribe my parents so that they would let me go to school.

India is very hot, isn't it?
It is so hot there that all the water boils spontaneously. That is why tea is such a popular drink in India.

Indians cannot eat beef, huh?
Cows provide milk which is a very essential part of Indian diet. So eating cows is forbidden. However in order to decrease the population of the country, the government is trying to encourage everyone to eat human meat.

Why do you sometimes wear Indian clothes to work?
I prefer it to coming naked.

emosi .. geram dan sakit hati

If you are looking at purchasing or leasing a trading system, or looking at following a publisher's trading signals, a legitimate question to ask the vendor is "do you trade this with your own money?"

While the answer to this question can be illuminating, and assuming you get a truthful answer, is it really important if the vendor trades with his own money?

For 100% mechanical systems, I'd say absolutely yes - the vendor should trade that system with real money, and should be able to prove it via independent accounting audits, brokerage statements or third party verified results.  Asking for statements might work, but watch out - they can be easily Photoshopped.  I'd be seriously concerned if a vendor didn't trade a 100% mechanical system with real money.  After all, if the system is so good, why wouldn't he or she trade it with real money?

But, there could be good reasons why a vendor would not trade a 100% mechanical system.  For example, maybe the large capital requirements put it out of the vendor's reach.  Or, maybe the system requires a fast internet connection, and the vendor lives in a dial up area.

At the same time, however, a vendor who does not trade a 100% mechanical system raises many red flags.  Is it because the results are unobtainable in real life?  That could be the case for a scalping system.  Or, maybe the vendor has no trading capital because almost every previous system he traded with real money failed.  That is true more than you'd like to think.  

For discretionary systems (ones where some or all of the decisions are made by the vendor, not by a set of definable computer instructions), I'm not as convinced, and I'll tell you why. The emotions of making and losing real money can very easily cloud one's judgment. I've seen good discretionary traders go "bonkers" when something terribly good or terribly bad happens. When real money is on the line, some people become reckless (trading like crazy), and some become timid (not trading at all). Maybe they would have made better decisions if their real money wasn't at stake. Maybe they would have made better decisions - who knows?

What I would recommend if you are interested in a discretionary system is to ask the following questions:

A. Do you trade this with real money (and how much)?

If answer to A is yes: B. What, if anything do you do to control your emotions while trading? Do you work with a trading coach? Do you think emotions are important?

If answer to A is no: C. What is preventing you from trading with your own money?

These questions should help you get in the discretionary trader's head, and then you can make a better decision.

There are many questions you should ask before buying any type of trading advice, be it a computer program, "black box" system or trading signals.  The question "do you trade this with your own money?" is worth asking, and should definitely be a part of your due diligence investigation.

S&P 500 by Nat's market analysis

The S&P 500 cash index (SPX) closed at 1240.49 on Friday for a net weekly gain of 15.78 points, up about 1.29%.   

The SPX closed the week on a very strong note. Basically it went up for the most of the day on Friday and closed above the high of November and made a new high for the year. 

This week is a quadruple expiration week. We may see a minor pullback this week. But Christmas holiday spirits will continue driving the price up until year end. The trading range will remain narrow.  

To see more of Nat's market analysis visit www.naturus.com. Free registration required

Technical analysis

 

Last week, SPX broke the November high and kept going higher for the close. The price action is bullish and pushing price to the extreme high level for the remaining three weeks of 2010 is unavoidable. There are two reasons for us to expect the price to go higher:

The holiday season has started, and the general optimism will make traders anticipate cheerful prices … as usual. The price needs to stay high to bring hope and joy, and a ‘Santa Claus’ rally.

1. SPX broke the November range and as long as the November range top line around 1227 holds the price up, SPX will try to reach its high targets. 
2. SPX broke the November range and as long as the November range top line around 1227 holds the price up, SPX will try to reach its high targets.   

Last week’s breakout move gave confirmation that the wave 4 low has been posted and the SPX is now processing wave 5. The probable wave 5 target could be any of these numbers:  1246.13, 1267.33, 1291.97 and 1347.57. We see 1361.02 as the absolute maximum for this wave.

If we exclude the top targets for the rest of this year, we could easily reach 1246.13, 1267.33 and 1291.97 before the year end.

However before wave 5 completes, we may see a sharp decline and a decent correction early in the New Year.

Holiday season behavior is driven by human emotion and any unexpected external event can change people’s emotion quickly. And the current price is driven up by many unusual activities.

We are in extremely overbought territory (based on put/call ratio, which at one point was as low as 0.39), the market has just made what could turn out to be a fake breakout and a long-term double top, and people are deeply committed to the hope that the economy will get a lot better. If that hope fades, how much higher can SPX go?

Monthly resistance 1250 and support 1145; Weekly resistance 1250 and support 1200

to release the feeling of frustration by Dr. Van K. Tharp

What if all of your problems were psychological problems? What if you could get whatever you want just by eliminating the psychological roadblocks to it? What if you didn’t understand any of this and as a result you are stuck right where you are now, making very little progress? Interested? Well read on.



The following is just one of many examples of people getting stuck psychologically and thinking it’s something else. Most people who enter trading are good at problem solving. Quite often they come from engineering backgrounds where they are trained at problem solving. But what if the very act of trying to solve a problem was what kept you stuck?



Jim was an electrical engineer by trade. He was great at solving problems until he got into trading. However, with trading he found that he got really stuck in trading positions. He’d figure out great systems and then get stuck trying to execute them. And he was always wondering why. This became a new problem for him to work on. But the more he worked on it, the more frustrated he became.



For such frustration, I always recommend the feeling release exercise that we use very effectively in Peak Performance 101 and it is also described in various forms in the Peak Performance Home Study Course.



When Jim came to me, his initial requirement was to release the feeling of frustration. He did that and felt a great relief. It now felt like he could move on with his life.



However, he still considered his trading to be a problem that he needed to solve. And this really bothered him, because he couldn’t seem to figure it out. As a result, I said, what if you just release the feelings that have to do with “trading being a problem that you need to solve.”



Jim was a bit puzzled, because this seemed different from the frustration. The frustration was a knot in his solar plexus and a tightness in his throat. He could relate to that as a feeling. But wanting to solve a problem didn’t seem like a feeling.



My response to this was to say, "but let’s pretend it is a feeling." “Where is the feeling?” I asked.



“Well my head seems to be spinning when I think about it,” Jim responded.



“Okay, that could be a feeling. Let’s act like it is. Now, are you willing to just let it go?”



Jim responded, “But I need to solve the problem.”



“What does it feel like to need to do something? Let’s pretend like that’s a feeling,” I responded.



“Okay,” said Jim.



“Now,” I repeated, “are you willing to let it go?”



“No, I don’t think so,” said Jim.



“Well, then, are you willing to allow it to be there… to embrace it.”



“I’m not sure,” said Jim.



”Would you rather have the feeling or would you rather be at peace,” I responded.



“Hmm,” said Jim, “it feels different now. In fact, I think it’s starting to disappear. Yes, I think it’s gone.”



“Okay, now go back to your trading,” I said.



Jim returned to his trading and over the next two hours he executed his trading system flawlessly. And when he realized what was happening, he was totally amazed.



“Wow,” said Jim, “suddenly when its no longer a problem for me, I just trade.”



“Yes,” I responded, “isn’t that interesting?”



Ask yourself, “Would you rather have your trading problems or be free of them?” This is a very important question, because if you are trying to figure out a problem you are going into the past. You can’t deal with the present -- what the market is doing -- because you are trying to deal with the past in figuring out the problem.



Also ask yourself, “If you are trying to figure out a problem, what are you doing? Are you not planning to have the problem again in the future? And isn’t it possible that your planning might just create it again in the future?”



Perhaps you haven’t thought about all of these issues before, but I’m recommending that you do now. Perhaps the trading process is much more psychological than you ever thought. Perhaps its not about solving problems after all.

The Four Poisons by Janice Dorn,M.D., Ph.D

How did I get into this, and how do I get out of it again, and how does it work?...Soren Kierkegaard



Night falls as the road narrows, leaving the paved highway and winding its way up the mile-high mountain. Squinting, I see a large shadow that comes slowly into focus. It’s a gorgeous structure built by my friend who made millions in a business that nobody else wanted. He endured hardships, including law suits, major financial losses, an arsonist who set fire to his property twice, persecution from those who said it couldn’t be done and betrayal from the love of his life. At 35 years of age, he is a role model, community leader and a seventh degree black belt in Tae Kwan Do. His name is Able, and he is a survivor.



His 20,000-square-foot home on the mountaintop is a testament to Able’s ability to face the wilderness and return as a triumphant survivor. He refused to quit, kept his discipline and never stopped moving forward until he emerged on the other side. Right next to the palatial estate is a 5,000-square-foot structure called a dojo. It is immaculate, and there are a several parents chatting while their children prepare for class. The children, ranging in age from 6 to 14, are dressed in white outfits, each with a different colored belt. They are talking, punching, kicking and waiting.



At exactly 7:30 p.m., Able enters the room, and the lesson begins. The class is free for all who dare to make the trip and the commitment. It is Able’s way of giving back to those who want to give to themselves. It’s a joy to see children engaged in learning to defend themselves, making themselves stronger, and giving up time they might be spending with TV or hanging out. Like Able, they are learning the art of survival.



The wilderness is a metaphor for the challenges that we face on a daily basis—both in the markets and in life. The behavior of the markets over the past year has taught us how to survive. We survive by preserving our financial capital, and with that, our mental, emotional, physical and spiritual capital. The markets will not rescue us from the wilderness. In fact, they are the wilderness. It is our responsibility to do whatever we can to face them and to survive.



How do we survive under such brutal and unfriendly conditions? How do we make it through the wilderness to the mountaintop? Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why by Laurence Gonzales (published 2004, W. W. Norton & Company) has many lessons for traders and here is one of them:



There is a Korean martial art called Kum Do. This is a brutal game that involves a fight to the death with very sharp swords. The way it is practiced today is with bamboo sticks, but the moves are the same. Kum Do teaches the student warriors to avoid what are called “The Four Poisons of the Mind.” These are: fear, confusion, hesitation and surprise. In Kum Do, the student must be constantly on guard to never anticipate the next move of the opponent. Likewise, the student must never allow his natural tendencies for prediction to get the better of him. Having a preconceived bias of what the markets or the opponents will do can lead to momentary confusion and—in the case of Kum Do—to death. A single blow in Kum Do can be lethal, and is the final cut, since the object is to kill the opponent. One blow—>death—>game over.



Instead of predicting, anticipating, and being in fear and confusion, you must do exactly the opposite if you are to survive a death blow from the market movements. You must watch with a calm, clear and collected attitude and strike at the right time. A few seconds of anticipation, hesitation or confusion can mean the difference between life and death in Kum Do—and wins or losses in the stock markets. If you are not in tune with the four poisons of fear, confusion, hesitation or surprise in the markets, you are at risk for ruin. Ruin means that your money is gone and the game is over.



How can you avoid the four poisons of the trading mind: fear, confusion, hesitation and surprise?



Replace fear with faith—faith in your trading model and trading plan



Replace confusion with the attitude of being comfortable with uncertainty



Replace hesitation with decisive action



Replace surprise with taking nothing for granted and preparing yourself for anything.



Always remember the long and winding road to the top of the mountain in the dark of night. Success in trading is a long journey with many twists and turns. You can and will get there if you are patient, watchful, non-anticipatory and always on guard for the exact moment when you can strike. Trading is a game of survival and the spoils are money. It’s your money, your life and your future. You have the power to survive and flourish if you remember the lessons from Able and Kum Do.



Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat…Sun Tzu



Thanks and Good Trading!

Janice Dorn,M.D., Ph.D.

traders who continually lose money trading by Brandon Jones

One of the most interesting, and perplexing, dynamics of trading is the sheer number of traders who continually lose money trading, but who, for some inexplicable reason, continue to trade. One possible explanation is that these “traders” are compelled to trade, meaning they are addicted to the gambling element inherent in trading.

Another reason might be that they do not have the personality or the skill set to trade, but they think they do, so they keep on participating in their delusion. Still a third and, perhaps, the one that explains most traders who lose money continually is that they don’t take the time to learn the craft, and, even worse, they don’t acquire the tools necessary to gain the edge needed to be successful. Those tools include educational elements, certainly, but more than that, in this, the age of software-driven trading, a trader needs quality trading software to “stay with the pack” and be successful.



Trading software comes in many forms, offering this bell or that whistle. Although many successful traders fully utilize the split screens, live news feeds, back testing, and other benefit-rich features, those who continually lose money don’t need these features in their trading software. No, what these traders need is bona-fide trading software that works seamlessly, efficiently, and provides information that actually gives a “heads up” on trend direction.



In the trading world, as in life, one gets what he or she pays for; quality comes with a price. This reality might still be one more reason traders who are losing money continue to lose money. It is an old maxim in business that states, “You have to spend money to make money.” Simply, if you want to make money in the markets, be prepared to expend money establishing yourself as a serious trader. How much depends on your capital account, and how serious you are about becoming a trader, but one thing is certain, if your capital account is decreasing from losses, then you need to either quit, or do something to stop the hemorrhaging.



When I first began trading, I found myself in this exact position. I was losing money, but I didn’t want to quit, so I began a long search for tools that would turn my trading around. I found an abundance of educational material that helped me tremendously, and I found a mentor that opened my eyes, but I knew I needed more. I knew I needed trading software that would help me be a better trader. So, I searched out, tried out, and let go of every inexpensive software package I could find. Either they were too complex, or they simply didn’t work for me.


Then I came across VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis software. I loved it – the intermarket analysis premise, the use of Neural Networks, and the ease of use – but the price seemed so high. Yet, it was the only software package available to an individual trader that could actually forecast trends with up to 86% accuracy and was simple to actually apply in live market conditions to trade profitably. So, I took the leap, spent the money, and I have been using the software for almost three years now and have achieved the financial freedom that I so badly wanted in life.



If you are like I was, a trader losing money, consider acquiring software that will help you gain the edge you need to turn your losses into winners. One criterion to use in evaluating how much you can spend on acquiring that software is how much money you are losing. Think about it as I finally came to think about it – If you were out of work, and a General Contractor tells you he will hire you as a carpenter, but you need your own tools, would you go out and spend the money for the tools so you could make money working? If you answer “yes” understand that carpenters don’t buy cheap tools because cheap tools risk injury, and an injury to a carpenter is like money lost to a trader – it can put you out of work.



As I said earlier, in today’s trading world, software is an important tool for finding success. So, in evaluating how much you can spend on software, one thing to look at is how much you have been willing to lose in bad trades. Compare that dollar amount to how much a quality piece of software costs. If you are losing more money than the cost of the software you want, the software that will help you turn the odds to your favor, then suggest to yourself, “Perhaps I should give this software a try.” And when you have this discussion with yourself, keep in mind that 1) you are currently losing money and 2) in business, it takes spending money to make money. The issue is, and it will forever be so in business, one needs to spend money on the tools that will actually make you money. I can only speak for me in this, but I am still trading and I still use VantagePoint. I wonder if there is a connection.

Believe in "your" trading methodology

Some of the best methods of technical analysis were formulated many years ago--well ahead of the computer age, according to Linda Bradford Raschke, the well-known market trader and lecturer.




"There is little 'new' technical analysis; it's all been touched on in some way or another" over the years, she said. Raschke was speaking at the Technical Analysis Group (TAG XVIII) workshop held in New Orleans and sponsored by Dow Jones Telerate.



Successful futures traders need to "get back to basics," said Raschke. She said traders that rely solely on computer-aided "trading systems" are overlooking a key element of the markets: "tape-reading," or the study of the price action.



"System" or "mechanical" trading methods use computer-generated signals that usually have a trader "in" the market much of the time.



"Do your homework the night before, and study price action," Raschke urged all types of traders.



Raschke relies on Keltner channels in her trading. Chester Keltner was a famous grain market trader with over 30 years of commodity trading experience. He was one of the first to pioneer systems work using trend-following rules.



One of the systems Keltner presented was the 10-day moving average rule. A 10-day moving average of the daily trading range was added and subtracted to a simple 10-period moving average--essentially forming bands.



These bands served as buy and sell stops by which to enter or exit a position. Keltner's original system was traded on a stop-and-reverse basis, which was mildly profitable, said Raschke.



By varying the bands on the most recent average daily price range, the channels will naturally be a greater distance from the market when the price swings are wide than when they are narrow. However, they will stay at a much more constant width that Bollinger bands, she said.



"You can see how you would have participated in the majority of a trend if you used Keltner's rules. Unfortunately, you would have experienced many whipsaws, too. This is because the system's intentions are to keep you in the market all the time," Raschke said.



"I put Keltner channels set at 2.5 times the 20-day moving average daily range, centered around the 20-period moving average. This is wide enough so that it contains 95% of the price action.



In flat-trading markets, as indicated by flat moving averages, it serves as a realistic objective to exit positions. However, I find its greatest value is in functioning as a filter to signal runaway market conditions, much as a rising ADX would do." (The ADX, or directional movement index, helps determine market trend.)



"Keltner channels will identify runaway markets caused by a large standard deviation move or momentum thrust. Thus, they can alert one much earlier to unusual volatility conditions than the ADX, which has a longer lag. On the other hand, (Keltner channels) will not capture the slow, creeping-trend market that an ADX will indicate."



Raschke's rule for defining trending markets: "If the bar (on the bar chart) has a close outside the Keltner channels, or trades 50% of its range outside the band, with a close in the upper half of its trading range, the market should not be traded in a counter-trend manner. Stay with the trend and trail a two-bar trailing stop."

Another trading technique Raschke relies upon is the Richard Wyckoff method of analyzing accumulation and distribution patterns.



On Wyckoff's trading methods, Raschke recommended traders read his book, "The Art of Day Trading," which is available at many publishing firms focused on business and investing.



One key component of Wyckoff's trading techniques involves a "critical" day. This usually involves a triangle formation on any bar chart—whereby price ranges and volatility are decreasing, to the point where a breakout in either direction is likely. Once the breakout occurs and a trend is under way, traders can get into the market and follow the trend.



In her presentation to around 150 futures and equities traders from around the world, Raschke also gave the following recommendations for all traders:



Always put current price action into perspective with historical price action. Raschke likes pivot points, as they determine whether prices are moving closer to, or farther away from, the pivot points.



When volatility expands, "impulse moves will be followed by more impulse moves. You don't have to hit the first move" to be successful in a trade.



The first hour of market trading usually is the most critical, when determining significant highs or lows in a market.



In "runaway" markets, one side (longs or shorts) is usually trapped. "Don't try to pick tops or bottoms."



Oscillators don't work well in strong-trending or runaway markets. They work best in choppy markets.



When a market looks at its very best, or very worst, a major change in trend is likely.



Raschke recommends that smaller-scale traders trade shorter timeframes than larger-scale traders.



On where and when to take profits and place stops in a market, she says, "How much do you want to win or lose? There is never a magic place to take profits or place stops." However, look at "swing moves" and key support and resistance levels closely. "Find your own comfort level."



The most successful traders "like to play the game" of trading markets. If you like the game, then you'll play a safe game and enjoy trading.



On trading psychology, Raschke says follow 3 rules:



1) Believe in "your" trading methodology.



2) Have a good attitude toward trading.



3) Concentrate. "Be 100% in the game."



There is no such thing as "mental stops." Always have your desired stops in place.



Raschke began her trading career in 1981 as a floor trader at the Pacific Coast Stock Exchange. In 1984, she became a member of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, where she expanded to trading futures markets. She has been featured in "The New Market Wizards," by Jack Schwager, and also co-authored, with Larry Conners, the book, "Street Smarts

unisem buy 2.08

today we in the game unisem

buy unisem

taget po at min 2.20

all patten its ok

ps...po down tak meet

axiata... our po 4.80 reach today

what next?

just look for the trendline

sell if it breaks

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Contrary opinion in the trading business

Contrary opinion in the trading business


by Jim Wyckoff

I have told my readers that one of the best methods to trade a market is to jump on board when prices "break out" of a congestion or "basing" area on the charts and begin a new trend. I have also stressed to my readers that one of the most risky and least successful trading methods is trying to pick tops and bottoms in markets. Now, I'm going to muddy the waters just a bit and discuss contrary opinion.

Contrary opinion in the trading business is defined as going (trading) against the popular or most widely held opinions in the marketplace. This notion of "going against the grain" of popular market opinion is difficult to undertake, especially when there is a steady drumbeat of fundamental information that seems to corroborate the popular opinion.

To help you understand why contrarian thinking is used successfully by some traders, consider these questions: When is a market most bullish? When is a market most bearish? The answers are: A market is most bullish when the highest daily high on the chart is scored--it's downhill for prices from there. A market is most bearish when the lowest low is reached on the chart, and then the market turns up.

It's no wonder many novice traders lose their assets quickly in the futures trading arena. Traders are most bullish at market tops and most bearish at market bottoms!

Since nobody has discovered the Holy Grail of trading markets, the best traders can do is seek out clues, through chart and technical analysis, and possibly do some contrary thinking.

If you've read books on trading markets, most will tell you to have a trading plan and stick with it throughout the trade. A main reason for this trading tenet is to keep you from being swayed or influenced by the opinions of others while you are in the middle of a trade. Popular opinion is many times not the right opinion when it comes to market direction.

I'll give you an actual example of how contrarian thinking and trading can be successful. The year was 1988, the last big drought year in the Midwest that saw corn and soybean prices skyrocket. It was a Friday in July that saw corn and bean prices trade sharply higher, based on ideas the hot and dry weather would continue in the Corn Belt. Then, after the close, the National Weather Service issued its 6-10 day forecast that, sure enough, called for more hot and dry weather for the Corn Belt. Bulls confidently headed home for the weekend. Even "local" traders on the Chicago Board of Trade floor went home long--something most never do, especially over a weekend.

Well, come Monday morning, the updated weather forecasts had changed a bit, but more importantly, trader psychology had changed immensely. The drought and resulting poor yields had all been factored into the market with prior price gains, culminating with Friday's big push higher. Corn and bean markets traded limit down on Monday and recorded very sharp losses for around three days in a row.

I know of one trader who used contrary opinion thinking and bought put options on corn that Friday that prices were pushing higher. He made a good deal of money that next week. But isn't that top-picking? Yes, technically it is. But this trader used a low-risk trade by purchasing options and employed contrary opinion to score a winning trade. Contrarian trading is not for everyone, but some traders are successful in employing it.

For further reading on using contrary opinion in trading, there is a book called "Contrary Opinion" by R. Earl Hadady. He is the founder of Market Vane's "Bullish Consensus." This is a weekly report that provides traders' degree of bullishness or bearishness in the major markets. Traders use this report to help them gauge when a market is overbought or oversold.

you will be burnt if you lie

Question. How did Pinocchio find out he was made of wood?

Answer. When his hand caught on fire

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science exam

The student - not necessarily a well-prepared student - sat in his life science classroom staring at a question on the final exam paper. The question directed: “Give four advantages of breast milk.”

What to write? He sighed, and began to scribble whatever came into his head, hoping for the best:

1. No need to boil.

2. Cats can’t steal it.

3. Available whenever necessary.

Um. So far so good - maybe. But the exam demanded a four-part answer. Again, what to write?

Once more he sighed. He frowned. He scowled. Then sighed again. But suddenly, he brightened. He grabbed his pen, and triumphantly he scribbled his definitive answer:

4. Available in attractive containers.

Other Use Of handphone.. the seller never tell you

There are a few things that can be done in times of grave emergencies. Your mobile phone can actually be a life saver or an emergency tool for survival. Check out the things that you can do with it:

1. Emergency

The Emergency Number worldwide for Mobile is 112. If you find yourself out of the coverage area of your mobile; network and there is an emergency, dial 112 and the mobile will search any existing network to establish the emergency number for you, and interestingly this number 112 can be dialed even if the keypad is locked. Try it out.

Also in Australia , the Australian emergency number 000 can be dialled whilst your mobile phone keyboard is locked. This is another reason why 000 receives so many false emergency calls!

2. Have you locked your keys in the car?

Does your car have remote keyless entry? This may come in handy someday. Good reason to own a cell phone: If you lock your keys in the car and the spare keys are at home, call someone at home on their mobile phone from your cell phone.

Hold your cell phone about a foot from your car door and have the person at your home press the unlock button, holding it near the mobile phone on their end. Your car will unlock. Saves someone from having to drive your keys to you. Distance is no object. You could be hundreds of miles away, and if you can reach someone who has the other "remote" for your car, you can unlock the doors (or the trunk).

Editors Note: It works fine! We tried it out and it unlocked our car over a mobile phone!"

3. Hidden Battery Power

Imagine your mobile battery is very low. To activate, press the keys *3370# Your mobile will restart with this reserve and the instrument will show a 50% increase in battery. This reserve will get charged when you charge your mobile next time.

4. How to disable a STOLEN mobile phone?

To check your Mobile phone's serial number, key in the following digits on your phone!:

star-hash-zero-six-hash

* # 0 6 #

A 15 digit code will appear on the screen. This number is unique to your handset. Write it down and keep it somewhere safe. When your phone get stolen, you can phone your service provider and give them this code. They will then be able to block your handset so even if the thief changes the SIM card, your phone will be totally useless. You probably won't get your phone back, but at least you know that whoever stole it can't use/sell it either. If everybody does this, there would be no point in people stealing mobile phones.

Not only the above, but also in Australia your stolen phone is added to a "Stolen Mobile Phone" database, so if your phone is found later on it can be returned to you.

unlucky

A man was speeding down the highway, feeling secure in a group of cars all traveling at the same speed. However, as they passed a speed trap, he got nailed with an infrared speed detector and was pulled over.


The officer handed him the citation, received his signature and was about to walk away when the man asked, “Officer, I know I was speeding, but I don’t think it’s fair - there were plenty of other cars around me who were going just as fast, so why did I get the ticket?”

“Ever go fishing?” the policeman suddenly asked the man.

“Um, yeah…” the startled man replied.

The officer grinned and added, “Did you ever catch all the fish?”

PE…growth and her potensi… Hutang…Dividen

Earning estimate.. eps..


I wasn't always a good investor. Over the past 30 years I've made just about every mistake imaginable:

Jumped in at the peak

Jumped out too late

Bought falling knives

Doubled down on losers

You name it, I probably did it.

Learn this thing ie earning estimate

earnings estimate revisions [EER] are the most powerful force impacting stock prices

The 3 Top Reasons to Love Earnings Estimate Revisions

1) The Most Fundamentally Sound Metric:

At the end of the day, all stock price movements can be traced back to earnings.

Read that line again so it really sinks in. The reason it's true is from the basic fact that when you buy shares in a company, you are actually buying a percentage ownership stake in that firm. And if you are the owner of a company, big or small, then the single most important metric to gauge success is how much earnings are generated.

If profits go higher than expected, the share price will rise. Conversely if profits go lower than expected, the share price will come down as well. The stock market has always worked on this premise and it always will. And nothing captures the essence of this notion more than earnings estimate revisions.

2) Applies to Every Type of Investor: Because all stock price movements can be traced back to earnings, it follows that earnings should be at the heart of every investment decision. But that is not the same as saying that earnings are the ONLY thing to consider when selecting a stock. That is just the starting point. From there, each investor can layer on other concepts such as value, growth, charts etc. to find the stocks that fit their unique approach.

3) It WORKS!: When you put the philosophy and analogies aside, earnings estimate revisions simply work.

great company ...in simple terms

INFOSYSism
You have a 1000 poor cows. You put them on a nice campus, & send them one at a time to the US for milking.

PATNIism
You have 10 cows. You make them work so that they give milk of 100 cows.

WIPROism
GE has a cow. You take 49% of the milk.

DELLism
Intel has a Goat. Samsung has a Camel. Buy milk from both & sell it as Cow's milk.

IBMism
You have old stubborn cows. You sell them as pet dogs to innocent small businessmen.

MICROSOFTism
You have a cow. Force the world to buy milk from you. Spend a million dollars to feed poorer cows.

SUNism
You have a bull. It doesn't give milk. You hate Microsoft.

ORACLEism
You have a cow. You don't know which side to milk, so you sell tools to help milk cows.

SAPism
You don't have a cow You sell milking solutions for cows implemented by milking consultants.

APPLEism
You have a cow. You sell iMilk.

SONYism
You have a cow. You spend $50 mn to develop the world's thinnest milk.

CITIBANKism
Welcome to Citibank. If you have a cow, press 1. If you have a bull, press 2...stay on line if you'd like our customer care to milk it for you.

HPism
You don't know if what you have is a cow. You sell complete milking solutions through authorised resellers only.

GEism
You have a donkey. People think you have a 100-year old cow. If someone finds out, that's his imagination at work.

RELIANCEism
You don't yet have a cow. You sell empty cans to people for Rs. 501, because Dhirubhai wanted everyone to have milk.

TATAism
You have a very old cow. You re-brand it as TATA Indicow.

axiata.. is 4.8 achiveable

this talk macam "da basi"... we talk this since 2 months ago .. as this blog is meant for midterm blogers 3-6 months time frame we think its not wrong tp repeat it again.. please see our previous missive in this older post

our stand hold at 4.8

nervously holding

among tools in toolbox

moving average ....
by Jim Wyckoff

Those who have followed my work for some time know that I take a “toolbox” approach to analyzing and trading markets. The more technical and analytical tools I have in my trading toolbox at my disposal, the better my chances for success in trading. One of my favorite "secondary" trading tools is moving averages.



In a past educational feature, I explained how I use my two favorite moving averages: the 9- and 18-period moving averages. In this feature, I will discuss using three moving averages in analyzing and trading a market. It's called the "triple-moving average" method.



The moving average is one of the most commonly used technical tools. In a simple moving average, the mathematical median of the underlying price is calculated over an observation period. Prices (usually closing prices) over this period are added and then divided by the total number of time periods. Every day of the observation period is given the same weighting in simple moving averages. Some moving averages give greater weight to more recent prices in the observation period. These are called exponential or weighted moving averages.



The length of time (the number of bars) calculated in a moving average is very important. Moving averages with shorter time periods normally fluctuate and are likely to give more trading signals. Slower moving averages use longer time periods and display a smoother moving average. The slower averages, however, may be too slow to enable you to establish a long or short position effectively. Moving averages follow the trend while smoothing the price movement. The simple moving average is most commonly combined with other simple moving averages to indicate buy and sell signals.



In the triple-moving-average method, "period" lengths typically consist of short, intermediate, and long-term moving averages. A commonly used system in futures trading is 4-, 9-, and 18period moving averages. Keep in mind a time "period" may be minutes, days, weeks, or even months. Typically, moving averages are used in the shorter time periods, and not on the longer-term weekly and monthly bar charts.



The trading signals generated by a triple moving average may be interpreted as follows: The shorter-term moving average above the longer-term average indicates a bullish market. When the shorter-term moving average crosses below the longer-term moving average, the market is viewed as bearish and a sell signal is generated. If the shorter-term moving average remains below the longer-term moving average, the market is still considered bearish. When the shorter-term average crosses above the longer-term average, a possible reversal to a bearish market is signaled.



The relation of the three moving averages can help to better and more quickly define the strength of the trend and provide shorter-term trading clues. For example, if the 4-period moving average crosses above the 9-period average, but the 9-period is still below the 18-period, that signals a trend change may be on the horizon, but it's best to wait for the 9-period to cross above the 18period for a better reading of the trend change.



The trader who uses shorter timeframes to trade markets is better suited to using the triple-moving-average method--because trading signals are given faster. But keep in mind the shorter the moving average, the greater the potential for false signals.



Here is an important caveat about using moving averages when trading futures markets: They do not work well in choppy or non-trending markets. One can develop a severe case of whiplash using moving averages in choppy, sideways markets. Conversely, in trending markets, moving averages can work very well.



When looking at a daily bar chart, one can plot different moving averages (provided you have the proper charting software) and immediately see if they have worked well at providing buy and sell signals during the past few months of price history on the chart.



As an aside, veteran ag market watchers say the "commodity funds" (the big trading funds that many times seem to dominate futures market trading) follow the 40-day moving average very closely when they trade the grains. Thus, if you see a grain market that is getting ready to cross above or below the 40-day moving average, it just may be that the funds could become more active.

if life is like computer

An awesome contribution sent in by BH:

1. **5 minutes ago you were traveling to office at 80 mph. in your brand new car. Now you are traveling to hospital at double the speed in an ambulance, you wish there was 'undo (ctrl + Z)' in life!

2. **You are already late, and your key is missing, you wish there was 'find tool (ctrl+F)' in life!

3. **You are a bankrupt, after investing in some weird business, you wish there was 'rebuild all' in life!

4. **The train is so crowded that you cannot get anywhere near that nice girl at the other end, You wish there was 'zoom & view full screen' in life!

5. **After marriage you realize that there is bound to be a mismatch, you wish there was an valuation period' or at least a 'sample download' or a 'demo version'!

6. **One day you realize that you are turning bald, you wish there was 'cut and paste (ctrl + X)/(ctrl + C)' in life!

And the best one is ..........

7. **The best part of the keyboard is U & I are together which is not always there in life......

a contribution. or a total commitment.”

A pig and a chicken were walking by a church where a gala charity event was taking place. Getting caught up in the spirit, the pig suggested to the chicken that they each make a contribution.


“Great idea!” the chicken cried.

“Let’s offer them ham and eggs?”

“Not so fast,” said the pig testily. “For you, that’s a contribution. For me, it’s a total commitment.”

why we have 1 heart not 2

Que. God gave you 2 legs to walk, 2 hands to to hold, 2 ears to hear, 2 eyes to see - but why did He give you only one heart?




Ans. Because He gave the other one to someone for you to find.

when someone begging and kedekut.. dont easily curse them coz there are reason for it

The United Way realized that it had never received a donation from the city's most successful lawyer. So a United Way volunteer paid the lawyer a visit in his lavish office.


The volunteer opened the meeting by saying, 'Our research shows that even though your annual income is over two million dollars, you don't give a penny to charity. Wouldn't you like to give something back to your community through the United Way?'

The lawyer thinks for a minute and says, 'First, did your research also show you that my mother is dying after a long, painful illness and she has huge medical bills that are far beyond her ability to pay?'

Embarrassed, the United Way rep mumbles, 'Uh... no, I didn't know that.'

'Secondly,' says the lawyer, ' did it show that my brother, a disabled veteran, is blind and confined to a wheelchair and is unable to support his wife and six children?

The stricken United Way rep begins to stammer an apology, but is cut off again.

'Thirdly, did your research also show you that my sister's husband died in dreadful car accident, leaving her penniless with a mortgage and three children, one of whom is disabled and another that has learning disabilities requiring an array of private tutors?'

The humiliated United Way rep, completely beaten, says, 'I'm so sorry, I had no idea.'


And the lawyer says, 'So...if I didn't give any money to them, what makes you think I'd give any to you?

Facebook

Question. Why is Facebook a great site for loners?


Answer. Because it's the only place where they can talk to a wall and not be considered an loser!

this is not chain emails

thank all my friends and family who have forwarded chain letters to  in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 and continuing it in 2009 also.......


Because of your kindness:

* I stopped drinking Coca Cola after I found out that it's good for removing toilet stains.

* I stopped going to the movies for fear of sitting on a needle infected with AIDS.

* Forwarded hundreds of mails but still waiting for FREE DESKTOP, LAPTOP, CAMERA, CELLPHONE etc….

* I smell like a wet dog since I stopped using deodorants because they cause cancer...

* I don't leave my car in the parking lot or any other place and sometimes I even have to walk about 7 blocks for fear that someone will drug me with a perfume sample and try to rob me.

* I also stopped answering the phone for fear that they may ask me to dial a stupid number and then I get a phone bill with calls to Uganda, Pakistan, Singapore and Tokyo.

* I also stopped drinking anything out of a Can for fear that I will get sick from the rat faeces and urine.

* When I go to parties, I don't look at any girl, no matter how hot she is, for fear that she will take me to a hotel, drug me, then take my kidneys and leave me taking a nap in a bathtub full of ice.

* I also donated all my savings to the Amy Bruce account. A sick girl that was about to die in the hospital about 7,000 times.. (Poor girl! she's been 7 since 1993...)

* Still open to help somebody from Nigeria who wants to use my account to transfer his uncle's property of $ 100 million. So much trustworthy.

* I have forwarded 35 emails to 400 people hoping that Ericsson or Nokia will send me latest mobile phones but those models are also obsolete now.

NOW IMPORTANT NOTE:

If you do not send this e-mail to at least 11,246 people in the next 10 seconds, a bird will Pee on your head today at 6:30pm.

Nothing has happened till now..................... but who knows. So please forward